Category 4 or above
Why it moved: +38 points at 21:20 UTC, after NOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Simon Forecast Discussion Number 6 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 81% |
| 9 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 82% |
| 9 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 83% |
| 9 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 80% |
| 9 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 79% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 95% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 74% |
| 8 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 68% |
| 8 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 54% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 74% |
| 7 Oct, 21:02 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tropical Storm Simon’s maximum sustained winds reach at least 130 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not achieve that wind speed. Readers often mistake the issuance of a hurricane warning for the resolution condition, but only the actual wind measurement matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 89%
- No 11%