Category 4 or above
Implied probability 1%−6
24-hour volume$52
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Why it moved: −7 points at 22:36 UTC, after NOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Rachel Forecast Discussion Number 47 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 22:36 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 20:54 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 04:37 UTC | 7% |
| 6 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 00:30 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 8% |
| 5 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 27% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Rachel achieves maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not reach that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the current category or intensity for the final resolution, but only the specific wind speed matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%