Category 5 or above
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$390
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 22 Sept, 11:58 UTC | 99% |
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Polo attains maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph. It resolves to No if it does not reach that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the current category for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%