Category 5 or above
Implied probability 72%+61
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 72% |
| 28 Sept, 05:19 UTC | 72% |
| 28 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Sept, 04:15 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 03:57 UTC | 64% |
| 28 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Sept, 02:48 UTC | 50% |
| 28 Sept, 02:15 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 38% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Sept, 21:37 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 11% |
| 26 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 19% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Polo sustains winds of at least 157 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not reach that wind speed. Readers often mistake the location of the storm for the criteria, but only the sustained wind speed matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 72%
- No 28%