Category 4 or above
Implied probability 1%−4
24-hour volume$89k
Total volume$118k
Liquidity$118k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Why it moved: +16 points at 18:28 UTC, after BBC Science: Isaias becomes major category three storm before landfall — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 19% |
| 9 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 17% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 10% |
| 7 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 39% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Isaias reaches maximum sustained winds of 130 mph or higher. It resolves to No if it does not reach that wind speed threshold.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%