Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 50%+43
24-hour volume$333
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 25% |
| 14 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 26% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Gyanesh Kumar leaves his role as Chief Election Commissioner of India before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains in that position past that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about voter list purges for the resolution condition, but only Kumar's departure matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 50%
- No 50%