At least 500 billion
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$43k
Liquidity$43k
Resolves31 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if total government spending drops by at least $500 billion between October 1, 2024, and September 30, 2026. The outcome is No if that specific decrease does not occur within this three-year window. Readers often mistake the linked news story about ACA refunds for the actual spending data required for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 100%