Above -3.5% of GDP
Implied probability 6%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves20 Apr 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 7 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 6% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Germany's general government net lending or borrowing balance for 2026 exceeds -3.5% of its GDP. It resolves to No if that balance is equal to or below -3.5%. Readers often mistake the headline's focus on current growth for the specific fiscal metric and year required for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%