4,300 or above
Implied probability 46%−8
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$49k
Liquidity$49k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 46% |
| 29 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 46% |
| 28 Sept, 05:22 UTC | 53% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the price of gold is above $4,300 per troy ounce at exactly 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if the price is $4,300 or lower at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution for a daily close or an average price over the day.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 46%
- No 54%