Above 85
Why it moved: +17 points at 14:34 UTC, after The Verge: Google is launching a one-stop Gemini agent for your work tasks — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 76% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the number of downloads for the Carbon Arc Gemini App in October 2026 exceeds 85. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the specific app name or confuse the resolution month with the launch date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 93%
- No 7%