Before Nov 1, 2026
The market favoured Yes at 85% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$32k
Total volume$75k
Liquidity$75k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 13 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 99% |
| 13 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 98% |
| 13 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 96% |
| 13 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 94% |
| 13 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 93% |
| 12 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 94% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 93% |
| 9 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 84% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 83% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 80% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 82% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 84% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Oct, 05:33 UTC | 91% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%