Above $2.3 trillion
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Apr 2027
Why it moved: +3 points at 11:18 UTC, after Times of India: Russia raises troop numbers to 1.55m as Zelensky accuses mass mobilisation — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 10:46 UTC | 96% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia's nominal GDP exceeds $2.3 trillion in 2026. It resolves to No if that threshold is not met during that year. Readers often mistake the linked news story about military personnel for the actual metric, but only Russia's total economic output counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%