Ilhan Omar
Why it moved: +14 points at 13:16 UTC, after Axios: Feds search Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in immigration probe: reports — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 22:33 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 44% |
| 12 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 45% |
| 12 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 42% |
| 12 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 47% |
| 12 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 48% |
| 12 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 45% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 17% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ilhan Omar is formally charged with a federal crime between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the news story date for the deadline or assume an investigation counts as a charge.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 34%
- No 66%