Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 16:05 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve System ceases to exist before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if the Fed continues to operate past that date. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about interest rates rather than the survival of the institution itself.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 100%