Before Jan 1, 2027
Why it moved: −12 points at 00:19 UTC, after Washington Post Business: UAW leader reviled by Trump declares victory in reelection — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 00:19 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 18% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Shawn Fain stops being president of the United Auto Workers before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains in that role through that date. Readers often mistake a temporary leave or acting status for leaving the position.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%