Somalia
Why it moved: −4 points at 20:45 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Somalia says it will hold elections in 2027 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 15 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 32% |
| 15 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 34% |
| 14 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 38% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an official report confirms a human Ebola case in Somalia between now and December 31, 2027. It resolves to No if no such confirmed case is reported within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the election announcement for the resolution trigger, but only Ebola cases count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 32%
- No 68%