China
Implied probability 7%−1
24-hour volume$78
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an official report confirms a human case of Ebola in China between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about WHO nominations for the relevant event, but only confirmed Ebola cases count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%