Before 2028
Why it moved: −3 points at 00:35 UTC, after The Guardian US: Record high temperatures as southern California swelters under heatwave — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Oct, 09:42 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurs in California or its territorial waters before December 31, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about sea level rise for the resolution criteria, but only earthquakes count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 87%