Taiwan
The market favoured No at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolved14 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −23 points at 23:32 UTC, after Bloomberg Technology: Redpoint Ventures’ Brescia on Micron Q4 & AI Outlook — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 23:32 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 24% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Micron representative mentions Taiwan during the next live post-earnings analyst call. It resolves to No if they do not mention it in that specific setting. Readers often mistake any general discussion of Taiwan for this event, but only explicit mentions by Micron personnel on the call count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%