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Uncertainty

Implied probability 48%−34
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves31 Mar 2027

Why it moved: −47 points at 22:53 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Another rate hike coming in Australia, AI hacks continue to reverberate globally — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Uncertainty
0%50%100%48%26 Sept, 22:07 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now48%
28 Sept, 02:25 UTC48%
28 Sept, 01:28 UTC33%
28 Sept, 00:30 UTC43%
28 Sept, 00:07 UTC48%
27 Sept, 23:37 UTC46%
27 Sept, 23:16 UTC46%
27 Sept, 22:53 UTC35%
26 Sept, 22:07 UTC82%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if any Goldman Sachs representative uses the word "Uncertainty" during the upcoming earnings call or Q&A session. It resolves to No if that specific word is never spoken by those representatives in that setting. Readers often mistake general discussions of risk for the literal use of the required term.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 48%
  • No 52%

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