Patient Zero by Taylor Swift
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$634
Total volume$48k
Liquidity$48k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 14:03 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 13:36 UTC | 98% |
| 27 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 03:33 UTC | 98% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 98% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 98% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Sept, 14:19 UTC | 97% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 97% |
| 26 Sept, 03:16 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Sept, 23:29 UTC | 96% |
| 25 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Sept, 22:09 UTC | 98% |
| 25 Sept, 21:48 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 98% |
| 25 Sept, 18:36 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 98% |
| 25 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 96% |
| 25 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 96% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 95% |
| 25 Sept, 12:25 UTC | 96% |
| 25 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 96% |
| 25 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 95% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 96% |
| 25 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 96% |
| 25 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 95% |
| 25 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 96% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 95% |
| 24 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 96% |
| 24 Sept, 22:07 UTC | 95% |
| 24 Sept, 20:45 UTC | 96% |
| 24 Sept, 20:10 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Sept, 18:02 UTC | 96% |
| 24 Sept, 17:42 UTC | 96% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 96% |
| 24 Sept, 05:12 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 96% |
| 24 Sept, 00:16 UTC | 95% |
| 23 Sept, 22:48 UTC | 96% |
| 23 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 95% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 93% |
| 23 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 96% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 97% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 95% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 97% |
| 22 Sept, 07:03 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Taylor Swift's song "Patient Zero" reaches the number one spot on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 10, 2026. The outcome is No if it does not hold that top position during that specific seven-day period. Readers often mistake the announcement of a new single or album as sufficient proof, but only the official chart ranking matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%