Trump (3+ times)
Implied probability 92%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 92% |
| 13 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 92% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if any participating candidate mentions Trump three or more times during the Iowa Press Debates: Governor originally scheduled for October 21, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of the debate as the only factor, but the key is the number of times Trump is mentioned by candidates.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 92%
- No 8%