Before Nov 1, 2026
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$188k
Liquidity$188k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 20:21 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive agreement to merge or acquire each other before November 1, 2026. The announcement must be binding and result in common corporate ownership or a transfer of controlling interest. Readers often mistake analyst speculation for an official corporate announcement.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%