Above 1400
Implied probability 85%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 85% |
| 15 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 85% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome depends on whether the number of Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads in October 2026 exceeds 1400. A Yes result occurs if that specific monthly download count is strictly greater than 1400, while a No result applies if it falls at or below that threshold. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year rather than the close of October 2026.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 85%
- No 15%