Tencent
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$19k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 04:19 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tencent holds the top rank among Chinese AI companies on the Arena AI Text Score leaderboard at 10:00 am ET on October 5, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of the news story for the resolution deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%