Above 25.6 million
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 10%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$39k
Liquidity$39k
Resolved26 Jan 2027
Why it moved: +9 points at 15:32 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Carnival Raises Full-Year Outlook on Record Booking Demand — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 15:32 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 14:19 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Carnival Corporation reports more than 25,600,000 available lower berth days in its third quarter of 2026 results. It resolves to No if that number is 25,600,000 or less. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about current booking demand for the final Q3 2026 official report.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%