Maintain current rate
Why it moved: −5 points at 19:17 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Fed’s Musalem Signals Rates Should Rise Next Six-to-Nine Months — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 80% |
| 8 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 80% |
| 8 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 83% |
| 3 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 82% |
| 3 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 83% |
| 2 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 85% |
| 2 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 84% |
| 2 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 83% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 68% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains the current interest rate at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting. It resolves to No if the bank changes the rate or takes any other action. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline, but only the outcome of the November meeting matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 80%
- No 20%