Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Implied probability 65%−3
24-hour volume$14
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves25 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 65% |
| 16 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 65% |
| 14 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 68% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes first in the Exterior zone of the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff based on certified results. It resolves to No if he does not finish first in that specific category. Readers often mistake the general national winner for the required result, but only the certified vote count from Brazians living abroad determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 65%
- No 35%