Flávio Bolsonaro
Implied probability 48%+11
24-hour volume$626
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves25 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 49% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Oct, 20:41 UTC | 0% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro finishes first among Brazilian voters living abroad in the 2026 presidential runoff, based on official certified results. It resolves to No if he does not take that top spot or if the election does not occur as scheduled. Readers often mistake the general national winner for the specific requirement of leading only the overseas vote.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 48%
- No 52%