Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves25 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff by a margin of at least 9%. It resolves to No if his winning margin is less than 9% or if he loses the election. Readers often mistake the first-round results for the final outcome, but only the official margin in the runoff determines the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%