Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%
Why it moved: −4 points at 01:55 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Brazil Election: Senate Approves Bill to Shorten Workweek in Boost to Lula — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 22% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 26% |
| 14 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 20% |
| 12 Oct, 13:00 UTC | 22% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff by a margin between 0% and 3%. It resolves to No if his victory margin falls outside that range or if he loses. Readers often mistake the initial election results for the final outcome, but only the official margin of the runoff determines the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 19%
- No 81%