Before 2027
Implied probability 5%−6
24-hour volume$2
Total volume$139k
Liquidity$139k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 15% |
| 5 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
For the 'Yes' outcome, a Chinese large language model must be ranked as the top AI model before January 1, 2027. The 'No' outcome occurs if this condition is not met by that deadline. Readers often mistake the ranking source or assume any high-ranking model counts, but only the specific top-ranked status matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%