Daniil Medvedev
The market favoured No at 73% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$73k
Liquidity$73k
Resolved17 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −27 points at 13:16 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Davidovich Fokina stuns top seed Zverev to reach Shanghai Masters final — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 28% |
| 16 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 32% |
| 16 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 27% |
| 16 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 29% |
| 16 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 35% |
| 16 Oct, 08:59 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 21% |
| 16 Oct, 05:14 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 15% |
| 15 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 22% |
| 15 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 23% |
| 15 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 25% |
| 15 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 24% |
| 14 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 25% |
| 14 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 24% |
| 14 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 25% |
| 14 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 14% |
| 14 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 16% |
| 13 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 20% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 16% |
| 13 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 21% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Oct, 18:30 UTC | 9% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 ATP Shanghai professional tennis tournament. It resolves to No if he does not win. Readers often mistake the specific year for any future Shanghai event, but only the 2026 tournament counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%