Above 11.5B
Why it moved: +6 points at 22:02 UTC, after Billboard: Judge Rules Woman Accused of Shooting at Rihanna & A$AP Rocky’s Home Mentally Fit to Stand Trial — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 22:02 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 20:54 UTC | 93% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Rihanna’s total worldwide streams exceed 11.5 billion between January 1 and December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if her total falls at or below that threshold during the same period. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a legal trial for the actual metric, but only streaming numbers count toward the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%