Below 38.2
Implied probability 24%−3
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves2 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 24% |
| 28 Sept, 13:30 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Sept, 12:24 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the President's approval rating falls below 38.2% at 11:00 AM ET on October 02, 2026, as reported by RealClearPolitics. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth for other polling aggregators or miss the specific time and date deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 24%
- No 76%