Above 4.5%
Implied probability 18%−46
24-hour volume$20k
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves19 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 02:08 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 29% |
| 14 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 31% |
| 14 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 34% |
| 14 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 31% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 21% |
| 14 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 64% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic’s text market share exceeds 4.5% on OpenRouter during the author week of October 12, 2026. It resolves to No if that specific metric stays at or below 4.5%. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the resolution data instead of waiting for the official OpenRouter report.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 82%