Above 83.5%
Implied probability 22%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves27 Apr 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 28 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 22% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Alaska Air Group reports a passenger load factor above 83.5 percent for fiscal year 2026. It resolves to No if the reported figure is 83.5 percent or lower. Readers often mistake the announcement date of the cabin overhaul for the relevant deadline, but only the official fiscal 2026 financial report determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 78%