Above 84.5%
Implied probability 39%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves19 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 39% |
| 28 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Alaska Air Group Inc. reports a passenger load factor above 84.5% for the third quarter of 2026. The outcome is No if the reported load factor is 84.5% or lower. Readers often mistake the reporting date for the deadline, but the resolution depends on the specific quarterly data period.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 39%
- No 61%