Cyril Ramaphosa
Why it moved: +3 points at 13:33 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Merz Urges Trump to Invite South Africa to G-20 Summit in Miami — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Cyril Ramaphosa leaves office before any other listed leader. It resolves to No if he remains in office while another listed leader departs first. Readers often mistake the linked news story about trade tensions for the resolution criteria, but only the order of leaving office matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 15%
- No 85%