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Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?

Implied probability 16%+1
24-hour volume$640
Total volume$29k
Liquidity$27k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
How the odds moved · Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?
0%50%100%16%7 Oct, 03:48 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now16%
13 Oct, 01:42 UTC16%
12 Oct, 17:12 UTC16%
12 Oct, 16:25 UTC15%
12 Oct, 15:54 UTC15%
12 Oct, 15:14 UTC15%
12 Oct, 14:48 UTC15%
12 Oct, 14:04 UTC15%
12 Oct, 13:55 UTC15%
12 Oct, 13:29 UTC15%
12 Oct, 12:56 UTC15%
12 Oct, 12:24 UTC15%
12 Oct, 10:35 UTC15%
12 Oct, 10:28 UTC15%
12 Oct, 09:53 UTC15%
12 Oct, 09:27 UTC15%
12 Oct, 08:40 UTC15%
12 Oct, 08:21 UTC15%
12 Oct, 07:53 UTC15%
12 Oct, 07:28 UTC15%
12 Oct, 06:57 UTC15%
12 Oct, 06:15 UTC15%
12 Oct, 05:31 UTC15%
12 Oct, 05:00 UTC15%
12 Oct, 04:29 UTC15%
12 Oct, 01:50 UTC15%
12 Oct, 01:06 UTC15%
12 Oct, 00:21 UTC15%
11 Oct, 23:56 UTC14%
11 Oct, 22:34 UTC14%
11 Oct, 22:27 UTC14%
11 Oct, 16:23 UTC12%
11 Oct, 15:49 UTC12%
11 Oct, 14:42 UTC12%
11 Oct, 13:51 UTC12%
11 Oct, 12:05 UTC12%
11 Oct, 05:06 UTC12%
11 Oct, 04:35 UTC12%
11 Oct, 03:00 UTC13%
11 Oct, 02:54 UTC13%
10 Oct, 15:41 UTC14%
10 Oct, 15:28 UTC14%
10 Oct, 14:41 UTC14%
10 Oct, 14:13 UTC14%
10 Oct, 12:34 UTC14%
10 Oct, 12:14 UTC14%
10 Oct, 10:58 UTC14%
10 Oct, 09:28 UTC13%
10 Oct, 08:37 UTC13%
10 Oct, 08:17 UTC13%
10 Oct, 05:46 UTC13%
10 Oct, 05:00 UTC13%
10 Oct, 04:20 UTC13%
10 Oct, 02:26 UTC12%
9 Oct, 23:25 UTC13%
9 Oct, 22:58 UTC12%
9 Oct, 22:10 UTC11%
9 Oct, 02:07 UTC7%
9 Oct, 00:23 UTC7%
8 Oct, 09:31 UTC7%
8 Oct, 06:46 UTC7%
8 Oct, 03:48 UTC7%
7 Oct, 03:48 UTC8%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if there are no qualifying air or surface-to-surface strikes between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia for 14 consecutive days following a relevant event. The count begins the day after the last qualifying action, and any new strike restarts the timer. Readers often mistake intercepted missiles or minor drone attacks as valid triggers, but these do not count toward resetting the period.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 16%
  • No 84%

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