Richard Madden announced as next James Bond?
Implied probability 0%−1
24-hour volume$192
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Richard Madden is officially named as the next James Bond by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves based on the first official announcement from Amazon MGM Studios or credible reporting consensus. Readers often mistake the linked trailer release for an official casting announcement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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