Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 89% |
| 13 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 89% |
| 13 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 91% |
| 13 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 90% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 19, 2026. The outcome is Yes if gemini-4-argon-high holds the highest rank among eligible models at that specific time. Readers often mistake the release date of the model for the resolution deadline or ignore the requirement to check the leaderboard exactly at noon ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 89%
- No 12%
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