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Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?

Implied probability 13%+2
24-hour volume$776
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves29 Sept 2026

Why it moved: +5 points at 21:33 UTC, after CBS News Politics: Selling early access to Trump Truth Social posts is illegal, ex-prosecutors say — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
0%50%100%13%20 Sept, 21:33 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now13%
21 Sept, 23:49 UTC13%
21 Sept, 23:16 UTC12%
21 Sept, 22:29 UTC13%
21 Sept, 21:33 UTC14%
20 Sept, 21:33 UTC10%

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What counts

The market resolves based on whether Donald Trump makes at least 200 qualifying posts on Truth Social between September 22 and September 29, 2026. Only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count toward this total; replies do not. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day on September 29, but the window closes at 12:00 PM ET.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 13%
  • No 87%

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