Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Implied probability 4%+1
Total volume$248k
Liquidity$29k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 10:25 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 08:35 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this announcement does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2027 instead of the specified date in late 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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