US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
Implied probability 92%+1
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$273k
Liquidity$53k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 03:20 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 91% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if a publicly announced mutual tariff agreement between the United States and China occurs by November 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The deadline is the specific date and time listed in the market parameters, not the end of the calendar year mentioned in the linked news headline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 92%
- No 8%
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