France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$67k
Total volume$65k
Liquidity$48k
Resolves16 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 02:01 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege enters into effect in France by 11:59 PM ET on November 15, 2026. The decree must explicitly constitute a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution and related Defence Code articles.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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