Spain snap election called in 2026?
Implied probability 100%+40
24-hour volume$46k
Total volume$109k
Liquidity$24k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 94% |
| 5 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 82% |
| 5 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 85% |
| 5 Oct, 05:30 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 87% |
| 5 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 86% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 84% |
| 5 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 83% |
| 5 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Oct, 23:51 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 80% |
| 4 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 73% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 07:38 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 66% |
| 2 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 51% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 49% |
| 2 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 54% |
| 2 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 54% |
| 2 Oct, 17:04 UTC | 55% |
| 2 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 55% |
| 1 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 21% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Spain formally dissolves Parliament or schedules a snap election by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the news of a potential election call for the actual formal dissolution required for resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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