Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
Why it moved: −3 points at 00:28 UTC, after Fox News World: NATO warns Russia: 'We will break' forces, destroy 'anything and everything' if you attack — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 60% |
| 13 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 60% |
| 12 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 63% |
| 12 Oct, 07:10 UTC | 62% |
| 12 Oct, 04:10 UTC | 61% |
| 11 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 08:06 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 07:14 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 06:07 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 68% |
| 11 Oct, 02:18 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 67% |
| 10 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 68% |
| 10 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 67% |
| 10 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 68% |
| 10 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 67% |
| 10 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 67% |
| 10 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 68% |
| 10 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 68% |
| 10 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 68% |
| 9 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if representatives from Russia and Ukraine hold an in-person diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The meeting must be deliberate, official, and publicly acknowledged by either government or credible media consensus. Readers often mistake indirect talks through mediators for non-qualifying events, but these count if authorized by the governments.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 60%
- No 41%
Trade this market on Polymarket →