Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 15:16 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 14% |
| 19 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 14% |
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What counts
NVIDIA must hold the second-largest global market capitalization at the market close on October 31, 2026, for the Yes outcome to resolve. The No outcome resolves if any other company holds that position at that specific time. Readers often mistake the linked news story about German startups as a factor in the resolution, but only the final market cap ranking matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 86%
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