US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
Implied probability 100%+33
24-hour volume$67k
Total volume$451k
Liquidity$111k
Resolves31 Mar 2027
Why it moved: +21 points at 18:15 UTC, after Quartz: Trump told the UN he'll "annihilate" Iran or make a deal after the midterms — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 22 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 99% |
| 22 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 96% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 94% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 76% |
| 22 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 74% |
| 22 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 74% |
| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 75% |
| 22 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 76% |
| 22 Sept, 13:23 UTC | 74% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Sept, 12:20 UTC | 74% |
| 22 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 77% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 77% |
| 22 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 77% |
| 22 Sept, 10:26 UTC | 76% |
| 22 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Sept, 07:57 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Sept, 07:09 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Sept, 04:20 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Sept, 03:54 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 72% |
| 21 Sept, 16:02 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 62% |
| 20 Sept, 14:04 UTC | 61% |
| 20 Sept, 13:33 UTC | 60% |
| 19 Sept, 13:31 UTC | 63% |
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What counts
For the market to resolve to "Yes," a new formal senior-level diplomatic meeting between US and Iran representatives must begin in person by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The event must involve authorized officials acting in an official capacity and be publicly acknowledged or reported by credible media.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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